View Full Version : question for those of your with real stock market experience
i3igpete
08-04-2011, 01:15 PM
Market Report - Aug. 4, 2011 - CNNMoney (http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/04/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1)
As stock market trading becomes more and more algorithmic, I wonder how much of these claims of "fear trading" are actually people calling the shots anymore.
Nowadays banks are hiring more and more math phd's that do nothing than write trading algorithms all day, is there such a thing as "investor panic" anymore? or is it just an effect of someone's code that was written 5 years ago?
there IS investor panic. but the triggering mechanism for it isn't human-based. at least that's my guess.
UTRacerX9
08-04-2011, 03:24 PM
Market Report - Aug. 4, 2011 - CNNMoney (http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/04/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1)
As stock market trading becomes more and more algorithmic, I wonder how much of these claims of "fear trading" are actually people calling the shots anymore.
Nowadays banks are hiring more and more math phd's that do nothing than write trading algorithms all day, is there such a thing as "investor panic" anymore? or is it just an effect of someone's code that was written 5 years ago?
Everything begins with human trading and data input. A trading program won't know what actions the Bank of Japan made overnight, or that the debt ceiling legislation passed. What trading programs do is watch the market index or stock it is following, and when it hits a certain volume level, price level, or other criteria, will trigger a decision to buy/sell. Now, trading programs can certainly exacerbate a situation, but they do not start them. Automated trading is still dependent on human input and parameters. What you do see though, is once the market starts to slide, let's say 2% in a day, then some fund manager who has his orders set to trade when the market dips to 2%, sells out. That drops prices even more. Then another manager who has set his limit to 3% drop gets triggered, and his portfolio sells. It can be a vicious cycle, and the only thing to stop it are the system halts when it gets out of hand.
i3igpete
08-04-2011, 03:53 PM
Right thats what I mean, there is no "panic" where someone is physically screaming "sell" into their telephone... it's an effect of something running on a black box.
UTRacerX9
08-04-2011, 04:16 PM
Right thats what I mean, there is no "panic" where someone is physically screaming "sell" into their telephone... it's an effect of something running on a black box.
LOL More or less correct. The screaming occurs when the doctor/lawyer/banker/engineer come home at night to check their finances and see that they lost $10-$20k in a day. ;)
AdamVR4
08-04-2011, 04:18 PM
So is today's plunge an isolated event or is it going to be ugly tomorrow too? And the next day?
let it fall. let hit hit 5k, so i can start buying shit up.
UTRacerX9
08-04-2011, 05:30 PM
So is today's plunge an isolated event or is it going to be ugly tomorrow too? And the next day?
If I knew stuff like that for certain Adam, I'd be drinking margaritas on a beach on my private island. ;)
Fridays are always hard to judge, especially after a mass selloff like today and the past week. Do the big dogs think that the market has sold off enough, and prices are now attractive to them to jump back in and get a better price than they might on Mon, when some of the panic has subsided? And, you also have to consider what reports will come out tomorrow, which is the "Employment Situation" report, and the "Consumer Credit" report. If those are bad, then there's very little chance of the market making a comeback tomorrow.
The only thing you can do with any degree of accuracy is research a particular stock you are interested in, and follow it for a month or two. If you think it's reached a price that you want to buy in/sell out, do it. But trying to time the market is a fool's errand. You may get lucky now and then, but overall, you'll lose.
AgentOblivious
08-04-2011, 05:35 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Flash_Crash#Explanations
BigTyla
08-04-2011, 05:51 PM
let it fall. let hit hit 5k, so i can start buying shit up.
If we get that low you're money might not be worth enough to be able to "buy shit up"! :D
i3igpete
08-04-2011, 09:54 PM
2010 Flash Crash - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Flash_Crash#Explanations)
yup, that event is exactly why i'm suspicious of when I read market reports that talk about investor "scares" or "panics". when pausing a stock for 5 seconds stabilizes it's price, there is no way there are people calling the shots on that.
UTRacerX9
08-05-2011, 09:17 AM
Looks like futures are up over 100 points for the Dow, due to the better than expected jobs report.
AdamVR4
08-05-2011, 10:06 AM
due to the better than expected jobs report.
I guess we finally set our expectations low enough... haha
Jimvr4
08-05-2011, 10:20 AM
dead cat bounce. After a BIG downdraft like yesterday there will probably be some further declines punctuated by sharp rallies where the big boys get a chance to go short.
UTRacerX9
08-05-2011, 10:43 AM
Yep. Glad I decided not to trade this morning.
AdamVR4
08-05-2011, 10:59 AM
Titty fucking Christ it's volatile as hell. The good vibes from the good employment news wore off quickly...
Roybatty
08-05-2011, 11:08 AM
The market will always be more fickle than a woman choosing clothes @ Macys. I can't believe it had the recovery run it had this past year. Didn't they find out a chicken could pick stocks as well as any financial advisor?
UTRacerX9
08-05-2011, 11:49 AM
Didn't they find out a chicken could pick stocks as well as any financial advisor?
You bite your tongue!
...It was a monkey. :p
UTRacerX9
08-05-2011, 12:00 PM
DO NOT CLICK ON THIS AT WORK Unless it's ok for a few cuss words here and there.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4hfdaC7eL4&feature=share
Roybatty
08-06-2011, 11:01 PM
You bite your tongue!
...It was a monkey. :p
LOL. Whenever there is a correction...(a big drop) it may be a good idea to pick up some good stocks. I have my eyes on APPL, GOOG, ATVI, BIDU and similar sector companies. I also like Canadian companies/mutual funds as their economy is/was actually doing okay.
Monkey Business: The All-Time Smartest Apes - FoxNews.com (http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/08/06/monkey-business-all-time-smartest-apes/?test=faces)
AdamVR4
08-08-2011, 06:21 PM
LOL. Whenever there is a correction...(a big drop) it may be a good idea to pick up some good stocks. I have my eyes on APPL, GOOG, ATVI, BIDU and similar sector companies. I also like Canadian companies/mutual funds as their economy is/was actually doing okay.
Monkey Business: The All-Time Smartest Apes - FoxNews.com (http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/08/06/monkey-business-all-time-smartest-apes/?test=faces)
Since purchase, I've lost 18% in a fidelity canada mutual fund (FICDX) -- I still think it's a good fund. I just had awful timing.
below 11k. i could have told you that on thursday.
i would NOT be shocked to see it dip below 10k.
AdamVR4
08-09-2011, 10:24 AM
So now what? The market is completely dependent on fed interference? Every time the market stumbles, we're going to artificially inflate it? W...T...F...
BigTyla
08-09-2011, 10:55 AM
So now what? The market is completely dependent on fed interference? Every time the market stumbles, we're going to artificially inflate it? W...T...F...
It's still inflated. I had a feeling this would happen a few months ago when everyone was pumping sunshine about the Dow being over 12k and declaring that the stimulus was working even though we were at 9.5% unemployment. It was only a matter of time before the market corrected itself. I'm with IPD - I think the Dow will drop below 10k before it makes an effort to climb back.
AdamVR4
08-09-2011, 05:39 PM
The market responded in a surprising way (+4% jump) to the fed saying they would keep interest rates down for a couple years... When I found out they weren't announcing QE3, I was expecting an ugly afternoon. Shows what I know.
UTRacerX9
08-09-2011, 09:36 PM
The market responded in a surprising way (+4% jump) to the fed saying they would keep interest rates down for a couple years... When I found out they weren't announcing QE3, I was expecting an ugly afternoon. Shows what I know.
Markets appreciate stability. When the Fed says they will hold interest rates where they are for a certain period of time, they mean exactly that, and investors can count on continued low interest rates for investment for a defined period. Not like Congress, where each new election period adds instability to the markets.
interest rates are the ONLY thing holding the markets afloat. with any luck, interest rates will be LOW for the first part of next year. dollars to doughnuts, i'm going to be buying a new house.
VR-4 0wnz j00
08-09-2011, 10:07 PM
Wall Street roars back in wild trade after Fed meet - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wall-Street-roars-back-in-rb-2330604806.html?x=0) - fun ride, eh?
VR-4 0wnz j00
08-09-2011, 10:07 PM
interest rates are the ONLY thing holding the markets afloat. with any luck, interest rates will be LOW for the first part of next year. dollars to doughnuts, i'm going to be buying a new house.
I plan on buying a house within the next year to take advantage before interest rises again.
i don't have a lot of choice. my job is going to tell me it's time to move.
Mikes2nd
08-10-2011, 08:19 PM
i went all in with PCS stock at 9.50...
AdamVR4
08-11-2011, 04:40 PM
i went all in with PCS stock at 9.50...
What caused it to drop like a rock on the 1st?
Jimvr4
08-11-2011, 10:05 PM
i went all in with PCS stock at 9.50...
Be careful. That could turn around and hit 8.80 again in a flash.
Roybatty
08-13-2011, 01:31 AM
Be careful. That could turn around and hit 8.80 again in a flash.
Anyone investing today better be going long and just be able to ignore it for a while. Don't be putting little Johnny's lunch money in the market! There are ways to safeguard it with call and put options but that gets fairly complex.
Mikes2nd
08-13-2011, 06:43 AM
PCS reported earnings, they said it took them a while to get the android phones out and rolling so they are a bit behind, but still making reasonable money. Clearwire is going broke(sprint yesterday said they are going to finance them a little since they are Sprints 4g network).
But pulling out of others and getting into pcs saved me alot and got strong support yesterday. It is scary but I think PCS is hanging in there.
Ill wait for it long term and see what happens, I may jump out right before earnings if they are up pretty good.
sprint will win. with the other 3 killing off everything that made them "consumer friendly", sprint will win by default. data caps will destroy marketshare. mark my words, unless at&t AND verizion change their programs, sprint will have >50% marketshare within 10 years. guaranteed.
Mikes2nd
08-13-2011, 10:22 PM
if sprint survives... they have a 2 billion dollar loan coming due... they have huge debt(16 billion owed)...
they have 4 billion in the bank... they are having to cough up 2 of that... 2 billion left in the tank and your going to lose another 800 million?
they pay a billion in interest alone a year...
50% no way... not even close. sprint was at 70$ a share, its at 3 now... it still losing money like 3-4 billion a year...
They have stopped the jugular bleeding but they still may not make it.
...just give it time. people are starting to exit en-masse from the other carriers.
i3igpete
08-15-2011, 01:34 PM
aaaaand just a few weeks later, CNN writes an article about algorithmic trading. NYSE trading floor looks absolutely dead.
Did computers give the market motion sickness? - Aug. 12, 2011 (http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/12/markets/high_frequency_trading/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=hp_bn3)
Roybatty
08-15-2011, 02:57 PM
Interesting. Perhaps we should be playing the algorithms instead of trying to guess the market moves.
Mikes2nd
08-15-2011, 05:18 PM
pcs up 6% today! woot
AgentOblivious
08-15-2011, 11:36 PM
Interesting. Perhaps we should be playing the algorithms instead of trying to guess the market moves.
You'd probably have an easier time figuring out how scratch lottery makers "randomize" their tickets, then tracking down the winning ones based on the production number. There are master's programs out there for financial engineering...the guys behind it are using really complex algorithms.
Roybatty
08-22-2011, 10:17 AM
Are we close enough to the bottom that we can buy a good stock now???
UTRacerX9
08-22-2011, 01:20 PM
Are we close enough to the bottom that we can buy a good stock now???
LOL :)
It all depends on what you consider a good stock. Bank stocks keep heading lower, but could be an excellent value for a long term hold. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose, and if you've researched your particular stock, then don't worry about trying to time the market too much if you plan on holding for the long haul.
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